Trouble & Attitude 1/Trouble and Attitude - Issue 01.iso/mac/PCTEXT/EWREPB2.TXT

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EARLY WARNING VOLUME 12, PART TWO
AFRICA BRIEFS
SOUTH AFRICA. A spate of murders and
violent or armed robberies over New Year's has
caused alarm in South Africa where Police Minis-
ter Sydney Mufamadi has announced immediate
plans for creating a "more representative" police
force.

One murder victim was a Danish tourist slain
in the Orange Free State. In Johannesburg, a
young business man and a police reservist were
gunned down by a gang holding up a gas station.
Police in Cape Town reported at least 19 murders
over the New Year's weekend. Outside Johannes-
burg in Soweto's Baragwanath hospital, some 400
victims of violent crime were treated each day of
the holiday.

Minister Mufamadi's plans for the police
include a redeployment of its generals and the
appointment of many more black divisional
chiefs.

SOUTH AFRICA. South Africa's state-owned
arms agency Armscor acknowledged last month
that a subsidiary is making chemical warfare
agents such as mustard gas. The company said
these were manufactured only in the limited
research quantities allowed by international con-
vention. Phillip Coleman, manager of the Pro-
technik laboratory that makes the agents, told
reporters during a tour of the plant outside
Johannesburg that the Chemical Weapons Conven-
tion (CWC) allowed signatories to maintain "a
single small-scale facility." He said Protechnik
made small samples of mustard gas and other
agents as part of operation to test clothing, air
filters and chemical-weapons-detection systems.
Coleman said his company was helping to ascer-
tain which companies in South Africa are making
industrial chemicals that could be processed into
warfare agents.

The company spokesman disclaimed knowledge
of whether South African companies had provided
such chemical warfare agents to countries like
Iraq, which is known to have used chemical
weapons during its Gulf war against Iran and
against Kurdish insurgents and villagers. Under
the terms of the CWC, which South Africa signed
in January 1994, member states must monitor the
production and marketing of Schedule Three
chemicals. Armscor chief Tielman de Waal said
South Africa had no stocks of chemical weapons.

ZIMBABWE. Bulawayo, Zimbabwe's second
largest city, imposed strict water rationing on
New Year's Day to try to save dwindling supplies.
George Mlilo, director of engineering services in
the Bulawayo City Council, disclosed that this city
of more than one million people has less than a
year's water supply, prompting the council to
ration water. Almost all the country's rains arrive
between September and April, but the El Niño
effect has gravely disrupted the customary
weather pattern.

"We have 54 million cubic meters of water in
our reserves at the moment of which only 30
million cubic meters are usable water. This is less
than a year's supply," Mlilo said. Bulawayo's
annual water consumption is between 36 and 40
million cubic meters a year. During the devastat-
ing 1992 drought, dozens of Bulawayo's industries
relocated or closed because of water shortages.
"Industrialists in the city are very cooperative this
time and the council has allowed industries to use
substantial amounts of water to safeguard the few
jobs available," Mlilo said

Meanwhile, Zimbabwe's sole electricity supply
authority said that the lack of rain threatens to
close some power stations fed by Lake Kariba -
Zimbabwe's leading energy supplier. "The dam
level is now very low and the authority is con-
cerned," a spokesman said. "If rains fail to fall
before the end of the month, power stations may be
threatened with closure as did happen in 1992."
During the 1992 drought, frequent power cuts
crippled industries and forced households to make
do with candles or charcoal stoves.


ZIMBABWE. More than a thousand black
Zimbabweans marched through central Harare last
week to protest alleged racism by banks and other
white-controlled businesses. Shouting such slo-
gans as "Murungus [whites] go back West" and
"Cecil Rhodes was a bandit and whites are still
thieves" and waving banners reading "Black eco-
nomic empowerment now," the demonstrators
marched to a number of banks including Barclays
and Standard Chartered to present demands that
lending to blacks increase and repossessions of
black-owned homes and properties be halted.

While marchers jeered at white passers-by,
there was no violence nor any arrests. There was
extensive coverage by both the state-owned radio
and television services. The demonstration fol-
lows a marked rise in anti-white [one percent of
the 10 million population] rhetoric by government
leaders and the growth of black empowerment
pressure groups connected to President Robert
Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF party. Anti-white
sentiment has been galvanized by the trial - and
conviction this week - of Dr. Richard McGown
for killing five black patients via injections in
experiments.

With national elections due within the next
five months, it appears that anti-white antagonism
will form a significant platform. In the past,
Zimbabwe was held up as an exemplar of multi-
racial society; but whites have stuck together
socially. They retain a very conspicuous control
of private business and a mere 4,000 own half the
farmland. Most blacks remain very poor. There
discontent was exacerbated by a World Bank-
sponsored structural adjustment program that has
made the price of basic goods soar, while unem-
ployment increases.

CHINA

BEIJING. When it was founded in August
1992, the Guangya Primary School was called the
largest private school to be created since the
establishment of the People's Republic in 1949.
In Beijing, 30 non-governmental universities have
been founded since the first, the Chinese Social
University, was established in 1982. A private
primary school opened in Beijing in November
1993 has been joined by ten new private schools;
and more than 90 additional private schools are
awaiting approval.

As the trend for Chinese nationals to set up
private schools begins to heat up, foreigners are
also entering the market. The first experimental
international school was established in Nanjing in
early 1993. Since then, a large number of private
establishments with names such as "international
school," "intensive English school" and "public
school" have emerged. They are funded by for-
eign businessmen as joint ventures or as sole
foreign investments.

Only 40 of the more than 1,000 private schools
charge high fees and specialize in educating the
children of the wealthy. The vast majority of the
private schools charge on a scale that is admittedly
higher than the public school fees, but are still
within the capacity of most wage earners.

BEIJING. The People's Liberation Army
(PLA) has taken unprecedented steps to crack
down on corruption within the military - corrup-
tion exacerbated by the army's growing involve-
ment with businesses ranging from arms and
uniform factories to conference centers and resort
hotels. For the first time, the PLA leadership has
published guidelines on economic accountability
and fiscal discipline, effective on January 1 as
Temporary Regulation on Economic Accounting.

Army sources report that the policy-setting
Central Military Commission and the army's
Commission for Disciplinary Inspection called
repeated meetings during 1994 on curbing corrup-
tion and cutting down on "irregular" business.
Recommendations range from closing down busi-
ness units run under the level of Group Army as
well subsuming the bulk of army businesses under
the General Logistics Department.

Critics of the PLA's business empire include
government departments and civilian companies
irked by the PLA's exemption from taxes and use
of military facilities for commercial operations.
The regulation is intended to combat such irregu-
larities as the misuse of army funds, equipment
and land, particularly for speculative business.

GUANGZHOU. The Public Security Bureau
recently broke up an underground workshop
network making and distributing fake credit cards
in Shenzen, the Special Economic Zone bordering
Hong Kong. Two men were arrested and charged
with selling some 300 fake Master and Visa cards
for between $250 and $385 each. The fake cards
were designed in the name of six overseas bank
issuers doing business in Taiwan and Hong Kong.

HONG KONG. The local business tycoons
who already enjoy Rolls-Royces, Harris Tweeds
and stocks of Glenfiddich whisky have discovered
they also can enjoy becoming a baron or even a
lord. Two Scottish castles that entitle their own-
ers to call themselves baron were recently sold to
Hong Kong buyers. Several more are on offer.
The deed of Mounie Castle in Aberdeenshire,
Scotland, carrying the titles of baron and baro-
ness, will be transferred to new Chinese owners.
The purchase price for the 17th century castle -
15 rooms, a library, main hall, paddocks and
stables - was a mere $300,000 - less than a typical
high-rise apartment in Hong Kong.

The Edinburgh dealer who sold Mounie Castle
is planning a foray into Hong Kong and Mainland
China this year. Among the titled properties he is
offering will be Earlshall Castle in Fife where
Mary Queen of Scots once lived. In some parts of
the Orient, because of the high esteem in which
holders of titles are held, such sales attract many
buyers. Said one real estate salesman, "People
who have lived under colonial rule regard a title as
a very impressive thing; and some need a bolt hole
as well."

LHASA. Southwest China's Tibetan Autono-
mous Region is speeding up construction of a
holiday village at Conngo Lake, 200 miles east of
Lhasa. In 1993, construction commenced of three
villas, each with nine suites of rooms. It will
include guest rooms and facilities for lake and
water sports. When completed in 1997, the village
will combine sight-seeing, food services, shop-
ping, housing and recreation and will accommo-
date 1,200 tourists a year.


SHANGHAI. As the computer fever in Shang-
hai continues to grow, city authorities are growing
concerned over the spread of pornographic com-
puter games. Beijing's Zhongguo Xinwen She
writes, "Computer software supplied by game
clubs contain scenes of pornographic sexual games
and girl cards. When a player wins a card game,
the loser, a sexy and lustful girl, will strip them-
selves by taking off her clothes one after one. It
must be noted that most game users are young
students and that they have to spend ten remminbi
to obtain these `wonderful softwares.'" Porno-
graphic software program diskettes, easily escape
inspection by customs officers. Doubtless, Shang-
hai will have a hard time ensuring "a clean and
healthy development of computer fever."

The Test Laboratory

Italy's search for a new prime minister came to a
halt today as President Oscar Luigi Scalfaro
announced he had asked austere former Treasury
Minister Lamberto Dini, 63, to form a
government. It has taken three weeks to resolve
the political crisis since Prime Minister Silvio
Berlusconi's government collapsed just before
Christmas and the Quirinale presidential palace
announced that the 76-year-old president had
retired to bed with political "influenza."

The search for a successor was stuck on com-
promise on the form of a new government.
Berlusconi insisted that he be given a new man-
date or elections be held by April. The Demo-
cratic Party of the Left (PDS) emerged from the
talks saying that Scalfaro still wanted a non-party
government and would probably require Berlus-
coni to return to parliament to seek a vote of
confidence, which he was unlikely to win. Dini,
an independent, will take office only after he
forms a Cabinet and wins a parliamentary vote of
confidence. He did not indicate whether his
government would be an interim one in prepara-
tion for early elections or had longer term ambi-
tions. He pledged to form a technocratic Cabinet
that would address the budget deficit and reform
the pension and electoral systems. Observers in
Rome believe that a Dini government will fail
unless it calls a general election within the next
four months, as the Forza Italia is insisting.

Dini is expected to have Forza support for
much of his agenda plus the backing of Gian-
franco Fini, who probably is now the country's
most admired politician, and his National Alliance
(NA), together with defectors from the coalition-
wrecking Northern League (LN). The collapse of
Berlusconi's eight-month-old government was in
part due to inexperience. His only previous
involvement in politics was as leader of the Forza
Italia movement that he founded three months
before becoming prime minister. Berlusconi was
brought down by the opening of anti-corruption
investigations into Fininvest, his corporate empire,
by magistrate Antonio Di Pietro, followed by
desertion of the League and parliamentary
demands for a vote of confidence. Though Di
Pietro claims neither political experience nor
ambition, his December resignation in protest of
Berlusconi's policies allowed Northern League
chief Umberto Bossi to smash the governing
coalition. Subsequently, Di Pietro was considered
a possible prime minister.

The ardently pro-capitalist Northern League
was founded before, not after, the end of the
Cold War. It resonated the protest of the North
that its taxes and resources were supporting the
poor, corrupt and incompetent South. The LN
includes those from the far right, such as Cham-
ber of Deputies Speaker Irene Pivetti and Interior
Minister Roberto "Bobo" Maroni, a so-called
"progressive" who often turns up at ceremonial
functions wearing the "shades and stubble" look.

With Berlusconi being grilled by Di Pietro's
henchmen, Bossi made his play and switched his
party's support from a rightist government to the
leftist opposition - the ex-Communist PDS. This
switch did not propel Bossi into a critical role in a
new coalition government. To Bossi's chagrin his
political treachery produced a rebellion in his
ranks with about a third of the League's deputies
rallying behind his deputy leader, "Bobo" Maroni.
Many believe that Bossi's mistake was to forget
that the one party of significance to emerge in the
years since the fall of communism is Forza Italia,
whose raison d'être was - and remains - to keep
up the battle against communism.

The paradox is more apparent than real. What
kept the Italian Communist Party (PCI) from
government was not just the resistance to it
offered by the Christian Democrats and their
American allies but also the PCI's close links to
the repressive and inefficient Soviet Union.
These handicaps vanished with the disintegration
of the Soviet Union and the disappearance of the
Christian Democrats in an ocean of corruption.
The Communist Party of Italy, replacing with a
red rose the hammer and sickle symbol and remo-
deled as the Democratic Party of the Left, was
primed to exploit the new opportunities that could
have given them power.

It was then that Berlusconi entered politics.
Berlusconi's margin of victory was too narrow for
him to govern without the exotic coalition that
has now disintegrated. With that disintegration,
his right-wing ally, Gianfranco Fini, may be
given the initiative. Should the power of the
perceived neo-fascist National Alliance increase,
an old-style left-right confrontation of unparal-
leled proportions would quickly follow, not only
in Italy but also in the international institutions of
Europe and, indeed, the world.

Italian society appears to have created new
types of politicians. Berlusconi was created by
the television stations that he controls; and Di
Pietro's celebrity status stems from the televised
court proceedings where he grilled the once-
mighty. With the new politicians, perhaps as an
expression of the global retreat from ideology,
come new political parties - the League, the
Forza and the Alliance - that transcend the tra-
ditional left-to-right classification and are impos-
sible to classify on conventional criteria.

European observers in Rome point out some
key facts from Italy's political scene: there is clear
evidence that if corruption becomes systematic, it
can be as devastating as conditions created by
military defeat; secondly, control of television and
the mass media can be used effectively for very
precise ideological ends; and thirdly, the tradi-
tional left-right conflict remains at the center of
politics and is likely to remain so. Perhaps Italy
has transformed itself, unwittingly, to the political
test laboratory for the 21st century.

Algerie Francaise

The Christmas Day storming of the hijacked
French aircraft in Marseille and the rescue of 171
hostages by a force of "super-gendarmes" - the
GIGN - was a singular triumph for Prime Minis-
ter Edouard Balladur and his Interior Minister
Charles Pasqua. Yet before the glow of success
could fade, four Catholic priests were murdered
in the courtyard of their church in Tizi Ouzou,
Algeria, by extremists from the Armed Islamic
Group (GIA), the organization responsible for the
hijacking. In a statement sent to news organiza-
tions, the GIA said it killed the priests, three
French and one Belgian, as part of a campaign of
"annihilation and physical liquidation of Christian
crusaders."

The hijacking of the Air France Airbus A-300
from Algiers to Marseilles did more than expand
the battlefield of the North African civil war to
France. With the GIA and associated terrorist
groups subsequently delivering ultimatums to the
United States, Britain and Germany to close their
embassies in Algeria or expect their in-country
diplomats and citizens to be killed, the war escal-
ated at best to another North-South conflict and,
at worst, to an Islamic jihad against Christians.

Clearly, careful thought was given to the tim-
ing of the hijacking. It took place on the third
anniversary of the first round of Algeria's legisla-
tive elections, in which the Islamic Salvation
Front (FIS), offering simplistic solutions to com-
plicated modern problems, polled more votes than
any other party. The elections had been necessi-
tated through Western pressure on Algeria. After
three decades of inevitable state centralist ineffi-
ciency and notorious corruption, the National
Liberation Front (FLN), underpinned by a mili-
tary that already was the regime's most privileged
prop, and the Algerian elite, had no wish to sur-
render authority to the FIS that won first local
elections, then the first parliamentary round.

With prompting from Paris and the tacit sup-
port of the West, the army and security service
forced Algeria's president to resign, cancelled the
second round of polling, and declared a state of
emergency under which many FIS leaders and
supporters were arrested. Within weeks, violence
and terrorism by the Islamist factions erupted.
The state of emergency, still in force, has not
prevented the loss of an estimated 25,000 lives,
with 800 more being killed each week.

The war is being fought on one side by several
political Islamist organizations, including the most
fanatical, the GIA, which pursues its ends with
savage and insane harshness, and on the other
side, by the brutal, corrupt and unelected military
government. Within the FIS coalition, there is a
power play between the political leaders, such as
Abassi Madani and Ali Belhadj, who were moved
not long ago from a top security prison to a
heavily guarded villa, and the uncompromising
extremists of the GIA.

Seeking to impose its control through terror on
the Algerian masses, the GIA seizes the headlines
in Algeria by killing women for their "un-Islamic"
behavior or dress - those not wearing veils,
schoolgirls wearing their uniforms, teachers,
hairdressers and beauticians; and murdering men
for so-called "crimes" such as teaching in secular
schools, selling French-language newspapers and
writing newspaper articles critical of the GIA.
The GIA makes headlines abroad by killing for-
eign diplomats, businessmen, priests and expatri-
ates. Against this onslaught, the political leaders
of the FIS, from which the GIA has broken,
struggle to maintain their authority from exile in
Britain, Germany and the United States. They
raise funds and engage in "dialogue" with Western
governments. Their contacts are constantly
undercut by those whose policies or positions are
wrecked or weakened by existence of a moderate,
democratic Islamic reform party. These wreckers
include the GIA, the French government that has
old and comfortable ties with the Algerian mili-
tary, and the International Monetary Fund, which
seeks to provide billions of dollars to Algeria's
military-backed regime.

The ease with which the hijackers seized the
Air France Airbus at Algiers airport and the
subsequent GIA atrocities indicate a situation far
worse than a mere failure of security. In both
Algeria and France, there is evidence of a grow-
ing "majority tolerance" of militant political Islam
that could be spreading throughout the West.
Newspaper readers in France and Algeria could
claim confusion as to what transpired since post-
hijacking accounts of the statements of the Air
France crew contradicted those of the Algerian
government. Some interpreted the Air France
crew's efforts to develop a relationship with their
four captors as "a humane bond that became ami-
cable," as the hijackers called forward passengers
to be killed as examples - a Vietnamese assumed
to be a Communist atheist and the French
Embassy's cook - and emphasized that the GIA
permitted the evacuation of some women passen-
gers, children and the sick.

Having failed to offer enough democratic
reform to split the Islamists yet still retain author-
ity, Algeria's military President General Liamine
Zeroual also is now in a power struggle. In
Algeria's political argot there are two factions: the
eradicateurs, whose "final solution" accepts the
killing of five million people, and the conciliat-
eurs, who claim to have a solution that would
dispose of several thousands. Pressure from the
eradicateurs has blocked direct talks between the
government and the FIS political leadership.

There are complicating factors, chief of which
is the attitude of the French government that has
rejected the belated and changed advice of Amer-
ica and Europe - particularly Spain - and backs a
repressive line against the Islamists.

French officials justify this strategy by raising
the spectre of a massive influx of Algerian "boat
people" should the military government collapse.
Military and political observers in Paris and
Algiers think such an event is improbable, since
they judge that neither side is sufficiently strong
to win the civil war. Should there be an exodus
from Algeria to France, the refugees would not be
"boat people" but "yacht people." The émigrés
would be Algeria's Francophile technocratic and
intellectual elites, who would have few problems
being absorbed in the French economy.

As Algeria's civil war expands, so French
politics are seen as dominant in the non-solution.
It is inevitable that the civil war in Algeria will
figure prominently in France's May presidential
elections. Last summer, the murders of five
French officials in Algiers prompted Interior
Minister Charles Pasqua to expel leading political
Islamists associated with the FIS and to establish
police check points in Paris at the height of the
tourist season. Since then, the French electorate
has grasped the seriousness of the situation.
French authorities believe the hijacking was
arranged with help from inside France. Thus, it
is not unreasonable to expect a further crack-
down on France's Algerian community - both
mainstream and fundamentalist.

Obviously this seriousness is most apparent to
Prime Minister Edouard Balladur, who, in the
absence of Jacques Delors as the Socialist candi-
date, seems destined to move to the Elysée Palace
and to take with him Pasqua as prime minister.
Pasqua, rather than Foreign Minister Alain Juppé,
has been the architect of France's commitment to
supporting Zeroual. Juppé said recently he is
"convinced, unhappily, that the solution to the
Algerian drama is not close."

Pasqua, who often says rhetorically, "We would
love to have dialogue with moderate Algerian
Muslims. But where are they?" is taking pains not
to attack France's large North African community.
Apart from being an important part of the elec-
torate, many immigrants and their French-born
children require reassurance that despite large
"suburban" ghettos where the unemployment rate
among youths of African and North African
heritage is as high as 60 percent, rows over
whether girls may opt to cover their hair with
scarves in school, and a new inflammatory line of
preaching in many mosques, they are still wel-
come in France.

Pasqua provides such assurances and has
become a folk hero to many North Africans. He
takes care to cultivate the mainstream Muslim
population by attending the opening of mosques
and other Muslim events; and his tough line
against political extremists in Algeria is applauded
by Muslims in France wishing to live a quiet life.

However, with the escalation of the civil war,
the prudence of Pasqua may not be able to con-
tinue, although the popularity he has gained since
the rescue of the hostages from the airbus in
Marseilles has made him near invincible on the
problems of Islamic political extremism.

According to British and German intelligence
sources, French agencies have persuaded sections
of the Western media that there is a global funda-
mentalist Islamic conspiracy, funded by Iran and
implemented through training in the Sudan.
These sources allege that campaigns of deliberate
disinformation are being carried out by the
French with two main goals: first, they are
intended to broaden popular support for the gov-
ernment leaders in advance of the presidential
election, as they continue backing the military
regime in Algiers despite disquiet over the human
rights violations of both sides; and second, to
increase support in other European countries for a
crackdown on sympathizers and organizers who
support the Algerian Islamic extremists. Accord-
ing to one veteran intelligence officer, "My own
reading is that the French are putting pressure on
Europe to say this is your problem and not only
ours."

Within this context, it is noted with interest
that the FIS executives-in-exile have characterized
the ultimatum to Western embassies as a "dubious
threatening letter" and French disinformation that
serves "only the interests of the army-led govern-
ment." According to the FIS representatives,
neither they nor the Islamic Salvation Army [the
official armed wing of the FIS] have issued such
threats. The FIS continued by stating that it
considered the civil conflict limited to the Alge-
rian people on one hand and the military dictator-
ship on the other. The FIS statement ended by
condemning "all actions against innocents, what-
ever their views or religion and whoever carries
them out."

At this time, to offset human rights charges
against the French government, Germany and
Britain both have media campaigns targeting FIS
exiles as GIA terrorists. Germany and Britain both
quietly cooperate with the French security organi-
zations, and while the policy of the Clinton White
House is for negotiations, French sources claim
that their relationships with the FBI Liason Office
in Paris on Islamic matters is excellent.

To many in the intelligence communities of the
West, the massive escalation of Islamic extremist
terrorism against the government of Egypt, the
continued acts of terrorism of the Palestinian
Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS) together
with the New York World Trade Center bombing,
the independence struggles among the Chechens,
Tatars and Tajiks of the former Soviet Union, the
misery of Bosnia and the Algerian civil war are
woven into a seamless web of criminal intrigue.

At the New Year, representatives of Syria and
Saudi Arabia met in Cairo with President Hosni
Mubarak to discuss plans in the light of the
Algerian situation. What these three regimes have
in common is that each supported the West during
Operation Desert Storm and is threatened by this
new jihad of political dissent. In the West, with
the Cold War dormant and military budgets being
trimmed, Algeria and a global Islamic threat are
good, not only for the ascendancy of the Balladur
and Pasqua team, but also for the military and
intelligence mandarins of many other countries.
END OF PART TWO, EW VOLUME 12.